The Supply Gap
Texas faces a growing water supply crisis that worsens with every year of inaction.
The Numbers:
| Year | Population | Supply Gap (Drought) | Economic Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 29.7 million | 1.2 million AF | Baseline |
| 2030 | 34.9 million | 2.9 million AF | $80-100B/year |
| 2050 | 47.3 million | 4.5 million AF | $120-140B/year |
| 2070 | 55+ million | 6.9 million AF | $153B/year |
By 2070, approximately 25% of Texans would face water shortages during a drought of record.
Supply Is Declining
Existing water supplies are projected to decrease while demand grows:
- Groundwater: Projected to decline 32% by 2070
- Surface water: Fully allocated; no new capacity
- Aquifers: Being depleted faster than they recharge
| Aquifer | Current Status | 2070 Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Ogallala | Declining 0.6-3.5 ft/year | 50% of current levels |
| Edwards | Capped at 572,000 AF/year | Allocation pressure increasing |
| Carrizo-Wilcox | Declining, Vista Ridge stress | 75-120 ft decline |
| Trinity | Supporting DFW growth | 50-100 ft decline |
Economic Consequences
The Texas Water Development Board and Texas 2036 have quantified the economic stakes:
Annual Economic Impact (Drought Conditions)
| Year | Lost GDP | Jobs at Risk | Agricultural Losses |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2030 | $80-100 billion | 400,000+ | $5-10 billion |
| 2050 | $120-140 billion | 600,000+ | $8-15 billion |
| 2070 | $153 billion | 785,000+ | $10-20 billion |
Sectors at Risk
| Sector | Water Dependency | Value at Risk |
|---|---|---|
| Power generation | 53.9% of ERCOT capacity | Grid reliability |
| Petrochemical | 100% for cooling/processing | $50B+ annual output |
| Semiconductor | Extreme purity requirements | $6B+ investment |
| Agriculture (irrigated) | 9.7 million AF/year | $7-10B crop value |
The cost of "do nothing" exceeds $150 billion per year by 2070—more than 10× the cost of the Backbone.
Regional Impacts
San Antonio Region
- 90%+ dependent on Edwards Aquifer
- Capped allocation vs. growing demand = inevitable shortage
- Without new supply: Rationing by 2040s, severe restrictions by 2050s
Austin Region
- Highland Lakes at chronic low levels during drought
- Population growth +88% by 2050 (among highest in state)
- Without new supply: Growth constraints, permanent drought restrictions
Dallas-Fort Worth Region
- Multiple sources but all fully allocated
- Trinity Aquifer under stress
- Without new supply: Regional competition intensifies, growth slows
Houston Region
- Subsidence forcing shift from groundwater
- Surface water supplies fully allocated
- Without new supply: Continued mandatory reductions, growth constraints
The Choice
Texas faces a fundamental choice: build strategically now or build in crisis later.
| Approach | Result |
|---|---|
| Reactive (wait for crisis) | Emergency spending at 3-5× normal costs; suboptimal solutions |
| Proactive (build now) | Planned infrastructure at competitive costs; optimized design |
Every Year of Delay
- Increases construction costs by 5-8%
- Allows aquifer depletion to continue
- Brings Texas closer to crisis-driven decisions
- Forfeits first-mover advantage in water technology
The Backbone’s Impact
| Metric | Without Backbone (2070) | With Backbone (2070) |
|---|---|---|
| Supply gap | 6.9 million AF | 4.0 million AF |
| Municipal supply security | 65% | 82% |
| Annual economic damages | $153B | $75-100B |
| Strategic reserve | None | 185,000 AF |
The question is not whether to invest in water infrastructure, but which investments to make and when.
The time to act is now.